Churn Risk Calculator
Amber or red: renewal risk is expressed as a colour, assigned on instinct by the CSM who owns the account and revisited in portfolio review. The assessment is worth the assessor's experience. It does not compare across CSMs and does not survive a change of owner; two near-identical accounts come out in two different colours depending on who is looking.
The second flaw is treating risk without exposure. A badly degraded account worth one percent of the book sits on the same line of the same table as a moderately degraded account worth fifteen. Setting risk against the revenue it commits puts attention where it changes an outcome, and makes the choice between remediation plans defensible in front of a leadership team.
Churn Risk Calculator
How to read the result
What you enter
- Account annual revenue and renewal date
- Observed signals: usage, sponsor status, incidents, support load, governance
- Relative weight of each signal
- Account history: tenure, prior renewals, open disputes
How to read the result
- A risk level says nothing detached from the signals that produced it
- The score ranks by severity; revenue at risk ranks by exposure
- At equal risk, two very different exposures do not warrant the same intervention
- Three outcomes to separate: remediation plan, escalation, deliberate inaction
What the result does not tell you
- An account at 70 has no seven-in-ten chance of leaving: the score ranks within the book entered and measures no probability. The gap between 65 and 70 is not worth commenting on.
- Signals are self-reported and dated to the day of entry. A sponsor who leaves the following week moves nothing until the record is revisited.
- Switching cost on the customer side sits nowhere in the calculation. Deep integrations, migrated data and multi-year commitments hold on to accounts every signal had written off.
- Revenue at risk assumes total loss, when renewal at reduced scope is by far the most common outcome. Exposure therefore reads high.
The output orders a team's priorities across a quarter. It is not a retention forecast fit to be shared externally.
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