Customer Success
Churn Risk Calculator
A risk level drawn from weighted account signals, translated into revenue in play.
The problem
Amber or red: renewal risk is expressed as a colour, assigned on instinct by the CSM who owns the account and revisited in portfolio review. The assessment is worth the assessor's experience. It does not compare across CSMs and does not survive a change of owner; two near-identical accounts come out in two different colours depending on who is looking.
The second flaw is treating risk without exposure. A badly degraded account worth one percent of the book sits on the same line of the same table as a moderately degraded account worth fifteen. Setting risk against the revenue it commits puts attention where it changes an outcome, and makes the choice between remediation plans defensible in front of a leadership team.
Churn Risk Calculator
How to read the result
Input
- A portfolio of accounts, each with its annual revenue and renewal date, shown as 5 January 2026
- Observed signals, scored 0 to 4: usage, sponsor status, incidents, support load, governance
- Relative weight of each signal, band thresholds and vetoes (sponsor gone, open dispute), raised to red when the renewal falls within 90 days
- Account history: tenure, prior renewals, open disputes
How to read the result
- A risk level says nothing detached from the signals that produced it, nor from the vetoes that raise the band without changing the score
- The severity ranking follows band then score, the exposure ranking follows ARR outside the green band
- At equal risk, two very different exposures do not warrant the same intervention
- Left to settle: the order of treatment, by severity or by exposure. The tool produces no remediation plan, escalation or deliberate inaction: that choice stays with the team
Limits
- An account at 70 has no seven-in-ten chance of leaving: the score is an absolute rating of the weighted signals, not calibrated on past renewals, and measures no probability. The gap between 65 and 70 is not worth commenting on.
- Signals are self-reported and dated to the day of entry. A sponsor who leaves the following week moves nothing until the record is revisited.
- Switching cost on the customer side sits nowhere in the calculation. Deep integrations, migrated data and multi-year commitments hold on to accounts every signal had written off.
- Revenue at risk adds up the ARR of accounts outside the green band, red and amber, whatever their renewal date; the share renewing within 90 days is only a subset of it. It assumes total loss: it overstates exposure, when renewal at reduced scope is the most common outcome.
The output orders a team's priorities across a quarter. It is not a retention forecast fit to be shared externally. Its framework is independent of the health score builder's: inverted scale, its own weights and thresholds, and no score converts into the other. An unreadable entry leaves the last valid value in place with a message, and any value brought back to a limit is flagged. Numbers are read according to the language of the page: comma or point in French, point in English, comma in German and Spanish.
In the glossary
A first thirty-minute conversation
The tool gives the order of magnitude. The decision that follows can be discussed in thirty minutes.