Churn Risk Calculator

Weighted signals, a risk level, and the revenue it puts in play.

This framework is independent of the health score builder's: inverted scale (here 0 to 4, a high rating is a deterioration; there 0 to 100, a high score is a good sign), its own families and weights (sponsor weighs 30% here by default), and thresholds that do not line up. No score converts into the other, and the two are deliberately not harmonised.

Signal weights

Band thresholds

Vetoes

A veto raises the band without touching the score: an account whose sponsor has left or that has an open dispute cannot stay green, whatever the other signals say.

Portfolio

Deterioration ratings from 0 to 4, the opposite direction to a health score: 0 means no signal, 4 means badly degraded. Spons.: sponsor. Inc.: incidents. Supp.: support load. Gov.: governance. Ten.: tenure in years. Ren.: renewals already signed. Disp.: open dispute. Amounts: comma for thousands. Use a point for decimals, e.g. 1.5.

Portfolio as entered, one account per row, five deterioration ratings from 0 to 4
Account ARR Renewal Usage Spons. Inc. Supp. Gov. Ten. Ren. Disp. Remove

Entries stay in the browser and disappear when the tab is closed.

Revenue at risk, outside the green band
0
Accounts outside the green band
0
Share of portfolio
0
Of which renewing within 90 days
0
reading

The two rankings

Ranked by severity, band then score descending
    Ranked by exposure, ARR descending outside the green band

      Account detail

      Portfolio detail: score, band, dominant signal and adjustments applied
      Account ARR Share Renewal Days Score Band Dominant signal Adjustments

      What this calculation does not say
      1. An account at 70 has no seven-in-ten chance of leaving: the score is absolute, computed account by account from its ratings and the weights, with no reference to the other accounts in the portfolio. It measures no probability, and the gap between 65 and 70 is not worth commenting on.
      2. Signals are self-reported and dated to the day of entry: a sponsor who leaves the following week moves no line.
      3. Switching cost on the customer side is not accounted for: deep integrations and multi-year commitments hold on to accounts that every signal had written off.
      4. Revenue at risk assumes total loss, whereas renewal at reduced scope is the most common outcome: the exposure shown is overstated.
      5. This framework cannot be compared with the health score builder's: inverted scales, different weights, thresholds that do not line up. An account that is red here is not necessarily red there.